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How to outsmart "the experts" in any domain
I’m starting an experiment in publishing a lot more — multiple times per week, on:
music (I play blues guitar)
I imagine using Substack somewhat like Twitter, in the sense of self-censoring a lot less and just firing things off. Since this is new and exploratory, I’d love your feedback on what you want more of, less of, or in a different form. (For example, I’m considering starting a music-only section of this newsletter for people who don’t care about my writing.)
Okay, on with the show — How to outsmart "the experts" in any domain
The Midwit Meme is probably my favorite meme ever.
The Dimwit (left) believes a simple thing, stress-free, without thinking about it too much.
The Midwit (center) is caught up in the complexity and stress of all the things the Dimwit hasn’t considered.
The Topwit (right) believes the same simple thing as the Dimwit, and he’s also stress-free — but the Topwit is stress-free because he’s seen through the complexity and stress that the Midwit is still caught up in.
Here’s how to outsmart the experts in any domain:
I drew a Venn diagram over the Dimwit and the Topwit, and said “start here” — start with what these 2 groups agree on.
Dimwits are often right very early about completely insane things, because they’re not trying to play midwit status games like appearing “smart and scientific.” Sometimes, slogans scrawled in 8 foot letters on the sides of trucks are more accurate than CNN — the trick is discerning which ones.
Topwits can help with that. Topwits have considered the complexities that Dimwits haven’t, and have a highly-informed sense of discretion.
Information that both Dimwits and Topwits find compelling tends to be both uncorrupted by intellectual fashions (thanks to the Dimwits), and well-vetted (thanks to the Topwits).
Not everything that fits into this category is of value, but if you put this stuff on your radar early, you will become very difficult to surprise.